An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 plane crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Christmas Day, killing 38 people and injuring 29. The crash followed an unexplained detour of hundreds of miles, prompting speculation that the aircraft may have been shot down. Russian military bloggers claimed the holes in the fuselage resembled damage caused by an anti-aircraft missile.

The plane, en route from Baku to Grozny, made a significant detour, possibly due to GPS jamming, before crash-landing 3 km from Aktau. Video footage showed the aircraft descending steeply and bursting into flames on impact. Parts of the fuselage were ripped away, with the wreckage lying upside down.

Russian aviation initially attributed the crash to a bird collision. However, reports later revealed an explosion in one of the oxygen tanks. Military bloggers, including Rybar, suggested the damage matched shrapnel patterns from an anti-aircraft missile. “The holes look like those left after a shelling or explosion,” noted Baza, a Telegram channel linked to Russian security services.

At the time of the crash, Ukrainian drones were reportedly attacking Grozny, with Russian forces intercepting several UAVs in the area. The detour through militarized airspace has raised questions about the aircraft’s safety.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cut short his visit to Russia after the incident. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed condolences, stating, “We deeply sympathize with those who lost their relatives and friends.”