Japan is facing growing concerns about a possible *megaquake* in the Nankai Trough, with scientists estimating a **75–82% chance** of it striking soon. If it hits, officials warn it could cause **up to 298,000 deaths** and **\$2 trillion in damages**.

The government has updated its preparedness plans but admitted that current efforts may only reduce fatalities by **20%**, far short of the **80% goal** set in a 2014 plan. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized, *“It is necessary for the nation, municipalities, companies and non-profits to come together and take measures in order to save as many lives as possible.”*

The Nankai Trough, where one tectonic plate slips under another, has experienced megaquakes every 100–200 years, with the last one occurring in 1946.

Public fear is rising, partly fueled by social media and even a manga that predicted a disaster on **July 5, 2025**. As a result, tourism from Hong Kong dropped by **11.2%** in May. However, visits from South Korea and China rose.

Ryoichi Nomura of the Japan Meteorological Agency urged calm: *“It is impossible… to predict the time, place, or magnitude of an earthquake.”* He encouraged preparedness but warned against panic-driven behavior.