Donald Trump has promised Americans a surprising “dividend” funded by his tariffs — a claim many see as unrealistic. He announced on Truth Social: “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

Trump insists his tariff plan made the U.S. “the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price,” claiming the government now has surplus money to share. However, he gave no timeline or details on who qualifies beyond excluding “high income people.”

Experts doubt the math adds up. Economist Erica York said, “If the cutoff is $100,000, 150M adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. … Adjusting for that, tariffs have raised $90 billion of net revenues compared to Trump’s proposed $300 billion rebate.” In short, his plan would cost over three times more than tariffs brought in.

Legal issues add more uncertainty. Multiple courts have ruled Trump’s use of emergency powers for tariffs illegal, and the Supreme Court is reviewing the matter. If tariffs collapse, any payout plan vanishes.

For now, the promised $2,000 check remains far from reality — another bold Trump pledge with no clear path to fulfillment.