Donald Trump sparked attention by promising a $2,000 dividend payment to almost all Americans, except high-income earners. He made the pledge on Truth Social, defending his tariffs and claiming they were generating “trillions of dollars” with “almost no inflation.” He said this money could help pay down the debt and fund the proposed dividend.

However, Trump offered no timeline and did not explain what counts as “high income,” raising doubts among economists and analysts. The Guardian reviewed the plan and noted the massive cost of sending $2,000 to millions of people. Estimates ranged from $300 billion to $513 billion, depending on eligibility.

Tax analyst Erica York said tariff revenue was only about $90 billion, far below what would be needed. Even under optimistic conditions, there is still a major gap between revenue and the promised payout.

Legal issues add more uncertainty. Trump’s tariff approach—central to funding the payments—is being reviewed by the U.S. Supreme Court. Lower courts previously ruled that using emergency powers to impose certain tariffs was illegal. If the Court rejects them, the entire funding model for the dividend would fall apart.

Trump later told reporters that payments would start “next year,” meaning 2026. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Congress would need to approve the plan, leaving the promise far from guaranteed.

Trump often makes big campaign pledges, but a cash promise of $2,000 per person may be harder for the public to forget if it never arrives.