Donald Trump announced a new pledge on Truth Social, claiming tariffs bring in enough money for the government to pay Americans a “dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!)” while also lowering the national debt. He argued that critics of tariffs are “FOOLS” and pointed to “Almost No Inflation,” a “Record Stock Market Price,” and the U.S. taking in “Trillions of Dollars” as proof his plan can work.

However, Trump gave no timeline for when the payments would start and did not define who qualifies as “high income.” This lack of detail immediately raised skepticism among analysts.

The cost of the dividend is estimated between $300 billion and $513 billion, depending on eligibility rules. Economist Erica York noted that if the cutoff were $100,000, about 150 million adults would receive payments, costing around $300 billion. Current tariffs, however, have only raised about $90 billion, leaving a massive funding gap.

A larger issue is the legality of the tariffs themselves. Multiple courts have ruled that the emergency powers used to implement them were illegal, and the Supreme Court is now reviewing the case. If the Court strikes down the tariffs, the main source of revenue for the $2,000 payout disappears completely.

Trump later said, “It will be next year… We’re going to do a dividend,” but offered no further clarity. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added, “We will see. We need legislation for that,” confirming that Congress would need to approve any payments.