President Donald Trump has floated a plan to give Americans a $2,000 “tariff dividend,” but anyone hoping for money this holiday season will be disappointed. Trump clarified that the payments would go to “individuals of moderate income” and would most likely arrive in 2026, not this year. As he put it, “We’ve taken in hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff money… We’re going to be issuing dividends later on… of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income.” He also said part of the tariff revenue would help pay down the nation’s debt.

Despite growing online speculation, Trump confirmed that no checks are coming before Christmas 2025, saying, “It’ll be next year sometime.”

A tariff dividend is different from a normal stimulus check because it is funded directly from tariffs collected on imports. But analysts doubt there is enough money to support a $2,000 payout. Erica York from the Tax Foundation wrote: “If the cutoff is $100,000, 150 million adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. Only problem, new tariffs have raised $120 billion so far.” By late September 2025, tariff revenue totaled $195 billion, still far below what would be required. Some officials argue payments could be based on projected future revenue.

Trump has indicated the checks will target middle- and lower-income families, though exact limits are not yet set. Current Pew Research guidelines place moderate-income households between $55,820 and $167,460.

For now, there is no approved program, and families should not expect a surprise payout.