President Donald Trump has again raised the idea of giving Americans a fourth stimulus-style payment — a $2,000 “tariff dividend” aimed at moderate-income families. But he made it clear that no one will receive anything this Christmas.

Speaking on November 17, 2025, Trump said the payments would go to “individuals of moderate income” and would likely arrive in 2026, before the midterm elections. He added, “We’ve taken in hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff money… We’re going to be issuing dividends later on… of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income.” He also claimed some tariff revenue would help reduce the $37 trillion national debt.

Despite online buzz, Trump confirmed: “No, no. Not for this year. It’ll be next year sometime.”

Tariff dividends differ from stimulus checks because they come from tariff revenue, not general federal funds. But experts doubt the numbers work. Analyst Erica York said: “If the cutoff is $100,000… for a cost near $300 billion. Only problem, new tariffs have raised $120 billion so far.” By September 30, 2025, tariff revenue totaled $195 billion — far below what’s needed for a national $2,000 payout. Some officials argue future tariff income could cover it, with long-term projections as high as $3 trillion.

Trump says the plan excludes wealthy households. Pew definitions place moderate income roughly between $55,820 and $167,460, though amounts vary by region.

Trump has floated similar ideas before, but none have passed. For now, there is no approved payment, and families should not expect a holiday check.