Trump announced a bold pledge online, stating, “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.” But the post lacked basic details. He gave no timeline, didn’t explain who counts as “high income,” and left millions unsure whether they would qualify. This uncertainty quickly raised doubts among analysts.

Experts questioned whether the government could afford such a payout. Estimates put the cost between $300 billion and $513 billion, depending on whether children are included and where the income cutoff is set. Economist Erica York noted that with a $100,000 cutoff, about 150 million adults would qualify, costing roughly $300 billion. Current tariffs, however, have only generated about $90 billion, far below what the plan requires.

A bigger risk is the legal fight surrounding the tariffs meant to fund the dividend. The administration used emergency powers to impose them, but three lower courts ruled this illegal, and the Supreme Court is now reviewing the case. If the Court strikes down the tariffs, the entire funding source would vanish, ending the possibility of the $2,000 dividend.

Trump later offered a partial update, saying, “It will be next year… The tariffs allow us to give a dividend.” Yet he didn’t address the cost or the legal risks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added, “We will see. We need legislation for that,” signaling that Congress must approve it.

Unlike broad political promises, a direct $2,000 payment is specific and memorable. If undelivered, it could significantly affect public trust and future accountability.