President Donald Trump is promoting a $2,000 “tariff dividend,” claiming it would be funded by tariff revenue collected during his administration. He says checks could arrive “by the middle of next year, a little bit later than that,” but he has not explained who would qualify or how the money would be distributed. While he insists the government collected “hundreds of billions” from tariffs, no legislation, IRS plan, or official framework exists.

Some analysts have guessed at possible rules. Social Security commentator Blind to Billionaire suggested income limits similar to past relief programs but emphasized that nothing is confirmed without congressional approval. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also expressed doubt, saying “we need legislation for that” and noting the payments might come as tax credits instead of checks. The IRS has not approved any $2,000 payments for 2025.

Cost is a major hurdle. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the proposal could require about $600 billion annually, far more than tariff revenue collected so far. Even limiting payments to households earning under $100,000 would still cost around $300 billion, according to analysts.

Some lawmakers reject the idea outright. Senator Ron Johnson argued, “Look, we can’t afford it,” saying the funds should go toward reducing the $1.8 trillion deficit instead of public payouts.

Trump continues to insist the payments will happen next year. For now, the “tariff dividend” remains a political promise without details, funding, or legislative support.