American voters, totaling 158 million in the 2020 election, saw key states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin decide the outcome with a mere 43,000 votes. Similar scenarios unfolded in 2016 with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Looking ahead to 2024, polls indicate a tight race. According to a 538 poll average, Biden and Trump are currently tied at 42.4% and 42.9%, respectively. Independents RFK Jr. and Cornel West gather 11% and 4% support.
For the 2024 Congressional ballot, 538 introduces a live-updating average. Adjusting their methodology, they account for partisan biases and focus on likely voter polls. The current average depicts Democrats and Republicans in a dead heat, with a marginal 0.4% lead for Democrats. This closeness surpasses the 2022 Election Day polls, emphasizing the uncertainty of the upcoming 2024 election.
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- JOE BIDEN
- DONALD TRUMP
